5 years is forever in the tech industry. I could easily see it largely replacing Flash for non-DRM sites. They may solve the DRM problem within 5 years, too. Flash will not be completely gone in 5 ...

Here's where we come to the Flash problem: Apple famously doesn't like Adobe's Flash and won't support it. When the iPad comes out, the primary video clients will be Apple's Quicktime and HTML5.

Of course, once a piece of Flash content has been turned into HTML5, you could add interactivity back in using HTML5′s own features in an app such as Adobe’s own Dreamweaver.