Consumers don't care for negative surprises. That's why so many companies affix carefully worded warning labels on everyday goods, ranging from hot coffee cups to hand mixers. And for safety ...

Anxieties prompted by a weak July jobs report were heightened by the fact that the data triggered what’s known as the Sahm rule, devised by and named after economist Claudia Sahm. But Sahm is ...

During the past few months, the “Sahm rule” has become a ubiquitous part of the conversation surrounding issues such as the economy, unemployment and the Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

That combination of factors has led most economists to determine that the "Sahm rule" probably doesn't apply right now. But for roughly five decades it has predicted every downturn. The Sahm rule ...

Global stock markets are in the grip of a deepening rout, prompting investors to turn to one of the most historically accurate indicators to determine whether the U.S. economy is in a recession.

A bummer of a jobs report released Friday morning triggered a sharp drop in the stock market and stoked fear of a coming recession—thanks to something known as the "Sahm Rule." So what is that?

That climb triggered the Sahm Rule, or when the three-month moving average of the national jobless rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its prior 12-month low. Because the Sahm Rule has ...

The so-called Sahm Rule has observed without fail that the initial phase of a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is at least half a percentage ...