The US is not in a recession, despite the indicator bearing my name saying that it is. The Sahm rule, which was triggered with Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, joins a long list of ...

Friday’s jobs report technically meets the Sahm rule's criteria. The jobless rate in July rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, ticking the three-month average more than a half point above the 3.6% average ...

The Sahm Rule is a simple rule of thumb for detecting the early stages of a recession – and it was recently triggered.

The Sahm rule states simply, when you get unemployment at its lowest point, which was 3.4%, if it is above that by a half a percentage point on a rolling average of three months.

I said, ‘OK, so the Sahm Rule says we would be in a recession, but Sahm says we’re not,’” said Claudia Sahm, the economist who came up with the eponymous recession indicator back in 2019.

A weak July jobs report just triggered one of the most well-known, and historically accurate, recession indicators: the Sahm Rule. But the rule’s inventor, Claudia Sahm, pushed back against the ...

The rule was triggered this month when the July jobs report showed a 4.3% unemployment rate (though Sahm herself has said she doesn't think the US is in a recession).. Michaillat and Saez's ...

In Sahm’s case, the visual is the reduced spending that is said to cause job loss. Of course, not seen by Sahm is that no individual could ever be harmed by too much saving.

Even economist Claudia Sahm admits that her namesake recession indicator isn’t always a guarantee that the economy is headed toward a downturn. Sahm, an economist who previously worked at the ...

As Sahm has explained, her rule wasn’t designed to predict recessions. It was, instead, meant to serve as a timely indicator that a recession was already underway and that the federal ...

The Sahm rule that is designed to signal the start of a recession has officially been triggered. It reached 0.5%, as in, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is now 0.5% above ...