Claudia Sahm's recession indicator, the Sahm Rule, has been triggered for the first time since 2020. But Sahm believes the current signal is a false positive due to rising labor force participation.

Claudia Sahm is the chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Federal Reserve economist. She is the creator of the Sahm rule, a recession indicator. The US is not in a recession ...

But for roughly five decades it has predicted every downturn. The Sahm rule is named for noted economist Claudia Sahm, who has accurately forecast every U.S. recession since the 1970s. Need a break?

I said, ‘OK, so the Sahm Rule says we would be in a recession, but Sahm says we’re not,’” said Claudia Sahm, the economist who came up with the eponymous recession indicator back in 2019.

The Sahm rule indicates that the U.S. is in the midst of a downturn, but it's not quite there yet. Rising unemployment rates in places such as California, New York and New Jersey may seem dire but ...