Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

FOX Sports college basketball bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy offers up his latest NCAA Tournament projections.

With Arkansas mired in the muck of a 1-6 start to SEC play, first-year coach John Calipari sent out a motivational text to his team with a message of inspiration that could essentially be boiled down to this: If you're going to have success,